MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS OF VULNERABILITY TO COASTAL EROSION IN THE ATLANTIC COAST OF PARAENSE, EASTERN AMAZON
Abstract
Global coastal erosion constitutes one of the most alarming problems in the spatial scenario of societies residing in these zones. Rapid climate change and rising sea levels can accelerate coastal erosion. Consequently, increased coastal erosion can severely damage coastal environments, hinder commercial activities, and disrupt tourism sectors. This work aims to analyze vulnerability to coastal erosion at the beaches of Bora, Crispim, and Marudá, in the northern portion of the Marapanim municipality, northeast of Pará State (Brazil). Thus, the goal is to develop physical vulnerability indices from the impacts of coastal erosion using a multi-criteria decision-making approach based on AHP and to spatialize the results under the scope of coastal vulnerability. In total, seven physical criteria were selected: shoreline change, geomorphology, soil types, proximity to the coast, coastal vegetation, elevation, and slope. The compiled criteria were acquired based on the availability of data and relevance to coastal vulnerability. The areas of high and very high physical vulnerability in the study area cover approximately 5.99 and 0.87 km², respectively, comprising 71% of the total study area. In turn, the results obtained are of utmost importance for supporting mitigation measures against the impacts of coastal erosion by management bodies.
References
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BEHLING, R.; MILEWSKI, R.; CHABRILLAT, S. Spatiotemporal shoreline dynamics of Namibian coastal lagoons derived by a dense remote sensing time series approach. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, v. 68, p. 262–271, jun. 2018.
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DO, A. T. K.; DE VRIES, S.; STIVE, M. J. F. The Estimation and Evaluation of Shoreline Locations, Shoreline-Change Rates, and Coastal Volume Changes Derived from Landsat Images. Journal of Coastal Research, v. 35, n. 1, p. 56–71, 2019.
DOLAN, R.; FENSTER, M. S.; HOLME, S. J. Temporal Analysis of Shoreline Recession and Accretion. Journal of Coastal Research, v. 7, n. 3, p. 22, 1991.
FOGARIN, S. et al. Combining remote sensing analysis with machine learning to evaluate short-term coastal evolution trend in the shoreline of Venice. Science of The Total Environment, v. 859, p. 160293, fev. 2023.
GAO, B. NDWI—A normalized difference water index for remote sensing of vegetation liquid water from space. Remote Sensing of Environment, v. 58, n. 3, p. 257–266, dez. 1996.
GONÇALVES, C. D. “Desastres naturais”. Algumas considerações: vulnerabilidade, risco e resiliência. Territorium, n. 19, p. 5–14, 1 dez. 2012.
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HOQUE, M. A.-A. et al. Assessing tropical cyclone risks using geospatial techniques. Applied Geography, v. 98, p. 22–33, set. 2018.
HOQUE, M. A. A. et al. Assessment of coastal vulnerability to multi-hazardous events using geospatial techniques along the eastern coast of Bangladesh. Ocean and Coastal Management, v. 181, n. February, p. 104898, 2019.
INMET. Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia. Disponível em:. Acesso em: 4 nov. 2020.
IPCC, I. P. ON C. C. Sea-level change. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New YorkCambridge University Press, , 2013.
IWAMA, A. Y.; BATISTELLA, M.; FERREIRA, L. DA C. Riscos geotécnicos e vulnerabilidade social em zonas costeiras: desigualdades e mudanças climáticas. Ambiente & Sociedade, v. 17, n. 4, p. 251–274, dez. 2014.
KABIR, M. A. et al. Assessing the shoreline dynamics of Hatiya Island of Meghna estuary in Bangladesh using multiband satellite imageries and hydro-meteorological data. Regional Studies in Marine Science, v. 35, p. 101167, mar. 2020.
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LINS-DE-BARROS, F. M. Integrated coastal vulnerability assessment: A methodology for coastal cities management integrating socioeconomic, physical and environmental dimensions - Case study of Região dos Lagos, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Ocean & Coastal Management, v. 149, p. 1–11, nov. 2017.
LINS-DE-BARROS, F. M.; SAUZEAU, T.; GUERRA, J. V. Historical evolution of seafront occupation in France (Bay of Biscay) and Brazil (Rio de Janeiro) face to coastal erosion vulnerability and risks (19th - 21th centuries). Confins, n. 39, 2 mar. 2019.
LIU, B. et al. An object–pressure–endurance–resilience system for assessing the vulnerability of coastal zone ecosystems. Ecological Indicators, v. 141, n. June, 2022.
LOZANO, S.; VILLA, G. Multiobjective target setting in data envelopment analysis using AHP. Computers & Operations Research, v. 36, n. 2, p. 549–564, fev. 2009.
MALCZEWSKI, J. GIS‐based multicriteria decision analysis: a survey of the literature. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, v. 20, n. 7, p. 703–726, ago. 2006.
MALCZEWSKI, J. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis and Geographic Information Systems BT - Trends in Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis. In: EHRGOTT, M.; FIGUEIRA, J. R.; GRECO, S. (Eds.). Boston, MA: Springer US, 2010. p. 369–395.
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MENEZES, A. F.; PEREIRA, P. DE S.; GONÇALVES, R. M. Uso de Geoindicadores para avaliação da vulnerabilidade à erosão costeira através de sistemas de informações geográficas. Revista Brasileira de Geografia Física, v. 06, p. 651–659, 2018.
MMA. Panorama da erosão costeira no Brasil. Brasília, DF: Ministério do Meio Ambiente, 2018.
NASSAR, K. et al. Shoreline change detection using DSAS technique: Case of North Sinai coast, Egypt. Marine Georesources & Geotechnology, v. 37, n. 1, p. 81–95, 2 jan. 2019.
NEGRÃO, Y. DE S.; SOUSA, H. C.; RANIERI, L. A. Vulnerabilidade à erosão costeira em praias amazônicas e a ocupação populacional em áreas de riscos. Revista Brasileira de Geomorfologia, v. 23, n. 2, p. 1264–1284, 6 abr. 2022.
NEVES, S. C. R.; FRANÇA, C. F. DE; SILVA, R. R. P. E. Morfologia e dinâmica da orla costeira do Maraú, ilha de Mosqueiro, Belém, Pará. Geosul, v. 34, n. 73, p. 107–125, 6 dez. 2019.
NICOLODI, J. L.; PETERMANN, M. R. Mudanças Climáticas e a Vulnerabilidade da Zona Costeira do Brasil: Aspectos ambientais, sociais e tecnológicos. Revista da Gestão Costeira Integrada, v. 10 (2), p. 151–177, 2010.
PAULA, E. M. S. DE; SILVA, E. V. DA. Planning and environment vulnerability of conservation units in the Amazon river landscape. GeoAmazônia, v. 1, n. 1, p. 1–22, 2023.
PROGÊNIO, M. F. et al. Environmental impact index for tidal power plants in amazon region coast. Environment, Development and Sustainability, v. 23, n. 7, p. 10814–10830, 18 jul. 2021.
QUEIROZ, H. A. DE A.; GONÇALVES, R. M.; MISHRA, M. Characterizing global satellite-based indicators for coastal vulnerability to erosion management as exemplified by a regional level analysis from Northeast Brazil. Science of The Total Environment, v. 817, p. 152849, abr. 2022.
RANGEL-BUITRAGO, N.; WILLIAMS, A. T.; ANFUSO, G. Hard protection structures as a principal coastal erosion management strategy along the Caribbean coast of Colombia. A chronicle of pitfalls. Ocean & Coastal Management, v. 156, p. 58–75, abr. 2018.
ROSENQVIST, A. et al. ALOS PALSAR: A pathfinder mission for global-scale monitoring of the environment. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, v. 45, n. 11, p. 3307–3316, 2007.
SANTOS, C. A. G. et al. Analysis of long- and short-term shoreline change dynamics: A study case of João Pessoa city in Brazil. Science of The Total Environment, v. 769, p. 144889, maio 2021.
SANTOS, M. R. DA S.; VITORINO, M. I.; PIMENTEL, M. A. DA S. Vulnerabilidade e mudanças climáticas: análise socioambiental em uma mesorregião da Amazônia. Ambiente e Agua - An Interdisciplinary Journal of Applied Science, v. 12, n. 5, p. 842, 23 ago. 2017.
SILVA, C. A. DA. Morfologia e Análise da Sucessão Deposicional do Vale Inciso Quaternário de Marapanim, Norte do Brasil. [s.l.] Universidade Federal do Pará, 2009.
SIQUEIRA, S. C. W. et al. Understanding the coastal erosion vulnerability influence over sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata) nesting in NE of Brazil. Regional Studies in Marine Science, v. 47, p. 101965, set. 2021.
SKINNER, L. F. Gerenciamento Ambiental Marinho. Diversidade e Gestão, v. Volume esp, n. 1, p. 147–162, 2017.
STATHOPOULOS, N. et al. Erosion Vulnerability Assessment of Sperchios River Basin, in East Central Greece—A GIS Based Analysis. Open Journal of Geology, v. 07, n. 05, p. 621–646, 2017.
STRONKHORST, J. et al. Regional coastal erosion assessment based on global open access data: a case study for Colombia. Journal of Coastal Conservation, v. 22, n. 4, p. 787–798, 27 ago. 2018.
THAKARE, L. M.; SHITOLE, T. A. Vulnerability assessment of the ratnagiri coast (Maharashtra, West Coast of India). Journal of Coastal Research, v. 37, n. 2, p. 421–432, 2021.
TOURE, S. et al. Shoreline detection using optical remote sensing: A review. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, v. 8, n. 2, 2019.
UN-HABITAT. UN-Habitat Annual Report 2009. Nairobi, Kenya: [s.n.].
AHMED, N. et al. Coastal erosion vulnerability assessment along the eastern coast of Bangladesh using geospatial techniques. Ocean & Coastal Management, v. 199, p. 105408, jan. 2021a.
AHMED, N. et al. Coastal erosion vulnerability assessment along the eastern coast of Bangladesh using geospatial techniques. c, v. 199, p. 105408, jan. 2021b.
ALMONACID-CABALLER, J. et al. Evaluation of annual mean shoreline position deduced from Landsat imagery as a mid-term coastal evolution indicator. Marine Geology, v. 372, p. 79–88, fev. 2016.
ALVES, H. P. DA F. Socio-environmental vulnerability in the São Paulo Macro-metropolis’ three main metropolitan regions: a socio-environmental indicators analysis indicators analysis. Ambiente & Sociedade, v. 24, 2021.
BAÍA, L. B.; RANIERI, L. A.; ROSÁRIO, R. P. Análise multitemporal da variação da linha de costa em praias estuarinas do Nordeste do Pará. Geociências, v. 40, n. 1, p. 231–244, 2021.
BARRAGÁN, J. M.; DE ANDRÉS, M. Analysis and trends of the world’s coastal cities and agglomerations. Ocean & Coastal Management, v. 114, p. 11–20, set. 2015.
BEHLING, R.; MILEWSKI, R.; CHABRILLAT, S. Spatiotemporal shoreline dynamics of Namibian coastal lagoons derived by a dense remote sensing time series approach. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, v. 68, p. 262–271, jun. 2018.
BENKHATTAB, F. Z. et al. Spatial–temporal analysis of the shoreline change rate using automatic computation and geospatial tools along the Tetouan coast in Morocco. Natural Hazards, v. 104, n. 1, p. 519–536, 19 out. 2020.
BERRÊDO, J. F.; COSTA, M. L.; PROGENE, M. DO P. S. Efeitos das variações sazonais do clima tropical úmido sobre as águas e sedimentos de manguezais do estuário do rio Marapanim, costa nordeste do Estado do Pará. Acta Amazonica, v. 38, n. 3, p. 473–482, 2008.
BRAGA, R. DA C. et al. Vulnerabilidade diante da ação energética do mar: Estudo de caso no Município de Salinópolis, Zona Costeira Amazônica, Brasil. Revista de Gestão Costeira Integrada, v. 19, n. 4, p. 245–264, nov. 2019.
BRAGA, R. DA C.; PIMENTEL, M. A. DA S. Índice de vulnerabilidade diante da variação do nível do mar na Amazônia: estudo de caso no município de salinópolis-Pará. Revista Brasileira de Geografia Física, v. 06, p. 1275–1291, 2019.
CAZENAVE, A. et al. Sea Level Change. In: CHURCH, J. A.; CLARK, P. U. (Eds.). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. London: Cambridge University Press, 2013.
CHANDIO, I. A. et al. GIS-based analytic hierarchy process as a multicriteria decision analysis instrument: a review. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, v. 6, n. 8, p. 3059–3066, 3 ago. 2013.
CREEL, L. Ripple Effects: Population and Coastal Regions. Measure Communication,: Measure Communication, 2003.
CROWELL, M.; DOUGLAS, B. C.; LEATHERMAN, TEPHEN P. On Forecasting Future U.S. Shoreline Positions: A Test of Algorithms. Journal of Coastal Research, v. 13, n. 4, p. 11, 1997.
DA SILVEIRA, Y. G.; BONETTI, J. Assessment of the physical vulnerability to erosion and flooding in a sheltered coastal sector: Florianópolis Bay, Brazil. Journal of Coastal Conservation, v. 23, n. 2, p. 303–314, 13 abr. 2019.
DE PAULA, E. M. S.; DE SOUZA, M. J. N. Sistemas de informações geográficas na análise da vulnerabilidade ambiental da bacia do rio Ceará-CE. Revista Brasileira de Cartografia, v. 63, n. 4, p. 515–525, 31 dez. 2011.
DJOUDER, F.; BOUTIBA, M. Vulnerability assessment of coastal areas to sea level rise from the physical and socioeconomic parameters: case of the Gulf Coast of Bejaia, Algeria. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, v. 10, n. 14, p. 299, 27 jul. 2017.
DO, A. T. K.; DE VRIES, S.; STIVE, M. J. F. The Estimation and Evaluation of Shoreline Locations, Shoreline-Change Rates, and Coastal Volume Changes Derived from Landsat Images. Journal of Coastal Research, v. 35, n. 1, p. 56–71, 2019.
DOLAN, R.; FENSTER, M. S.; HOLME, S. J. Temporal Analysis of Shoreline Recession and Accretion. Journal of Coastal Research, v. 7, n. 3, p. 22, 1991.
FOGARIN, S. et al. Combining remote sensing analysis with machine learning to evaluate short-term coastal evolution trend in the shoreline of Venice. Science of The Total Environment, v. 859, p. 160293, fev. 2023.
GAO, B. NDWI—A normalized difference water index for remote sensing of vegetation liquid water from space. Remote Sensing of Environment, v. 58, n. 3, p. 257–266, dez. 1996.
GONÇALVES, C. D. “Desastres naturais”. Algumas considerações: vulnerabilidade, risco e resiliência. Territorium, n. 19, p. 5–14, 1 dez. 2012.
HONEYCUTT, M. G.; CROWELL, M.; DOUGLAS, B. C. Shoreline-Position Forecasting: Impact of Storms, Rate-Calculation Methodologies, and Temporal Scales. Journal of Coastal Research, v. 17, n. 3, p. 721–730, 2001.
HOQUE, M. A.-A. et al. Assessing tropical cyclone risks using geospatial techniques. Applied Geography, v. 98, p. 22–33, set. 2018.
HOQUE, M. A. A. et al. Assessment of coastal vulnerability to multi-hazardous events using geospatial techniques along the eastern coast of Bangladesh. Ocean and Coastal Management, v. 181, n. February, p. 104898, 2019.
INMET. Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia. Disponível em:
IPCC, I. P. ON C. C. Sea-level change. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New YorkCambridge University Press, , 2013.
IWAMA, A. Y.; BATISTELLA, M.; FERREIRA, L. DA C. Riscos geotécnicos e vulnerabilidade social em zonas costeiras: desigualdades e mudanças climáticas. Ambiente & Sociedade, v. 17, n. 4, p. 251–274, dez. 2014.
KABIR, M. A. et al. Assessing the shoreline dynamics of Hatiya Island of Meghna estuary in Bangladesh using multiband satellite imageries and hydro-meteorological data. Regional Studies in Marine Science, v. 35, p. 101167, mar. 2020.
LACERDA, M.; VASQUEZ; ROSA-COSTA, L. T. DA. Geologia e Recursos Minerais do Estado do Pará : Sistema de Informações Geográfi cas – SIG : texto explicativo dos mapas Geológico e Tectônico e de Recursos Minerais do Estado do Pará. Escala 1:1.000.000, Belém: [s.n.].
LINS-DE-BARROS, F. M. Integrated coastal vulnerability assessment: A methodology for coastal cities management integrating socioeconomic, physical and environmental dimensions - Case study of Região dos Lagos, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Ocean & Coastal Management, v. 149, p. 1–11, nov. 2017.
LINS-DE-BARROS, F. M.; SAUZEAU, T.; GUERRA, J. V. Historical evolution of seafront occupation in France (Bay of Biscay) and Brazil (Rio de Janeiro) face to coastal erosion vulnerability and risks (19th - 21th centuries). Confins, n. 39, 2 mar. 2019.
LIU, B. et al. An object–pressure–endurance–resilience system for assessing the vulnerability of coastal zone ecosystems. Ecological Indicators, v. 141, n. June, 2022.
LOZANO, S.; VILLA, G. Multiobjective target setting in data envelopment analysis using AHP. Computers & Operations Research, v. 36, n. 2, p. 549–564, fev. 2009.
MALCZEWSKI, J. GIS‐based multicriteria decision analysis: a survey of the literature. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, v. 20, n. 7, p. 703–726, ago. 2006.
MALCZEWSKI, J. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis and Geographic Information Systems BT - Trends in Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis. In: EHRGOTT, M.; FIGUEIRA, J. R.; GRECO, S. (Eds.). Boston, MA: Springer US, 2010. p. 369–395.
MARTORANO, L. Estudos climáticos do Estado do Pará, classificação climática (Köppen) e deficiência hídrica (Thornthwaite, Mather). [s.l: s.n.].
MENEZES, A. F.; PEREIRA, P. DE S.; GONÇALVES, R. M. Uso de Geoindicadores para avaliação da vulnerabilidade à erosão costeira através de sistemas de informações geográficas. Revista Brasileira de Geografia Física, v. 06, p. 651–659, 2018.
MMA. Panorama da erosão costeira no Brasil. Brasília, DF: Ministério do Meio Ambiente, 2018.
NASSAR, K. et al. Shoreline change detection using DSAS technique: Case of North Sinai coast, Egypt. Marine Georesources & Geotechnology, v. 37, n. 1, p. 81–95, 2 jan. 2019.
NEGRÃO, Y. DE S.; SOUSA, H. C.; RANIERI, L. A. Vulnerabilidade à erosão costeira em praias amazônicas e a ocupação populacional em áreas de riscos. Revista Brasileira de Geomorfologia, v. 23, n. 2, p. 1264–1284, 6 abr. 2022.
NEVES, S. C. R.; FRANÇA, C. F. DE; SILVA, R. R. P. E. Morfologia e dinâmica da orla costeira do Maraú, ilha de Mosqueiro, Belém, Pará. Geosul, v. 34, n. 73, p. 107–125, 6 dez. 2019.
NICOLODI, J. L.; PETERMANN, M. R. Mudanças Climáticas e a Vulnerabilidade da Zona Costeira do Brasil: Aspectos ambientais, sociais e tecnológicos. Revista da Gestão Costeira Integrada, v. 10 (2), p. 151–177, 2010.
PAULA, E. M. S. DE; SILVA, E. V. DA. Planning and environment vulnerability of conservation units in the Amazon river landscape. GeoAmazônia, v. 1, n. 1, p. 1–22, 2023.
PROGÊNIO, M. F. et al. Environmental impact index for tidal power plants in amazon region coast. Environment, Development and Sustainability, v. 23, n. 7, p. 10814–10830, 18 jul. 2021.
QUEIROZ, H. A. DE A.; GONÇALVES, R. M.; MISHRA, M. Characterizing global satellite-based indicators for coastal vulnerability to erosion management as exemplified by a regional level analysis from Northeast Brazil. Science of The Total Environment, v. 817, p. 152849, abr. 2022.
RANGEL-BUITRAGO, N.; WILLIAMS, A. T.; ANFUSO, G. Hard protection structures as a principal coastal erosion management strategy along the Caribbean coast of Colombia. A chronicle of pitfalls. Ocean & Coastal Management, v. 156, p. 58–75, abr. 2018.
ROSENQVIST, A. et al. ALOS PALSAR: A pathfinder mission for global-scale monitoring of the environment. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, v. 45, n. 11, p. 3307–3316, 2007.
SANTOS, C. A. G. et al. Analysis of long- and short-term shoreline change dynamics: A study case of João Pessoa city in Brazil. Science of The Total Environment, v. 769, p. 144889, maio 2021.
SANTOS, M. R. DA S.; VITORINO, M. I.; PIMENTEL, M. A. DA S. Vulnerabilidade e mudanças climáticas: análise socioambiental em uma mesorregião da Amazônia. Ambiente e Agua - An Interdisciplinary Journal of Applied Science, v. 12, n. 5, p. 842, 23 ago. 2017.
SILVA, C. A. DA. Morfologia e Análise da Sucessão Deposicional do Vale Inciso Quaternário de Marapanim, Norte do Brasil. [s.l.] Universidade Federal do Pará, 2009.
SIQUEIRA, S. C. W. et al. Understanding the coastal erosion vulnerability influence over sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata) nesting in NE of Brazil. Regional Studies in Marine Science, v. 47, p. 101965, set. 2021.
SKINNER, L. F. Gerenciamento Ambiental Marinho. Diversidade e Gestão, v. Volume esp, n. 1, p. 147–162, 2017.
STATHOPOULOS, N. et al. Erosion Vulnerability Assessment of Sperchios River Basin, in East Central Greece—A GIS Based Analysis. Open Journal of Geology, v. 07, n. 05, p. 621–646, 2017.
STRONKHORST, J. et al. Regional coastal erosion assessment based on global open access data: a case study for Colombia. Journal of Coastal Conservation, v. 22, n. 4, p. 787–798, 27 ago. 2018.
THAKARE, L. M.; SHITOLE, T. A. Vulnerability assessment of the ratnagiri coast (Maharashtra, West Coast of India). Journal of Coastal Research, v. 37, n. 2, p. 421–432, 2021.
TOURE, S. et al. Shoreline detection using optical remote sensing: A review. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, v. 8, n. 2, 2019.
UN-HABITAT. UN-Habitat Annual Report 2009. Nairobi, Kenya: [s.n.].
Published
22/05/2026
How to Cite
DE BARROS, Vivian De Holanda Cardim et al.
MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS OF VULNERABILITY TO COASTAL EROSION IN THE ATLANTIC COAST OF PARAENSE, EASTERN AMAZON.
Mercator, Fortaleza, v. 25, may 2026.
ISSN 1984-2201.
Available at: <http://www.mercator.ufc.br/mercator/article/view/3627>. Date accessed: 22 may 2026.
doi: https://doi.org/10.4215/rm2026.e25011.
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