FUTURE DYNAMICS OF LAND USE AND LAND COVER IN THE CERRADO BIOME

DOI: https://doi.org/10.4215/rm2026.e25015

Abstract

O Cerrado, hotspot global de biodiversidade, sofre com a rápida expansão agropecuária. Para orientar políticas públicas, este estudo analisou cenários futuros de uso e cobertura da terra até 2100, utilizando um modelo espacial em Python (Cadeias de Markov, Pesos de Evidência e métricas de vizinhança). Taxas de desmatamento do PRODES definiram três cenários: otimista (6.512,6 km²/ano), tendencial (8.140,8 km²/ano) e pessimista (11.551 km²/ano). Os resultados mostram que o cenário otimista desacelera a perda de vegetação; o tendencial mantém padrões recentes com perdas expressivas; e o pessimista causa forte fragmentação. As maiores perdas anuais ocorrem entre 2030 e 2050 (otimista: –2.707 km², tendencial: –6.342 km², pessimista: –15.711 km²). Após 2050, as taxas caem devido à escassez de áreas remanescentes. Em 2100, a vegetação nativa se reduzirá a 1,3–1,7 milhões km² (47–61% da área original). Conclui-se que as trajetórias atuais ameaçam a resiliência ecológica do bioma, exigindo políticas rigorosas de conservação e controle do desmatamento.

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Published
10/07/2026
How to Cite
FRAZÃO, Ana Paula et al. FUTURE DYNAMICS OF LAND USE AND LAND COVER IN THE CERRADO BIOME. Mercator, Fortaleza, v. 25, july 2026. ISSN 1984-2201. Available at: <http://www.mercator.ufc.br/mercator/article/view/3975>. Date accessed: 27 july 2026. doi: https://doi.org/10.4215/rm2026.e25015.
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Vol 25 (2026)
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