DROUGHT RISK IN THE SEMI-ARID OF BAHIA

DOI: https://doi.org/10.4215/rm2023.e22024

Abstract

Drought is a complex and poorly understood climatic phenomenon. Drought risk studies are vital factors in formulating public policies. This research aimed to characterize the drought risk in the semi-arid region of Bahia, emphasizing the agricultural sector. To this end, risk scenarios were elaborated, considering the concepts associated with risk theory. Four key indicators were considered for vulnerability: agricultural, environmental, technological, and educational. The results indicate that the semi-arid region’s risk is at least high for all drought conditions. In more intense drought conditions, the risk is critical. All the scenarios showed that due to the vulnerabilities found, drought in the region can generate a climate crisis of immeasurable proportions and consequences at different scales. We also demonstrate that the drought risk in the region seems to be more closely linked to socio-spatial particularities than to the severity of the phenomenon itself, highlighting the need for specific public policies. It was concluded, therefore, that more intense drought scenarios can increase the uncertainty of agricultural activities and intensify food insecurity, resulting in social turbulence and putting the region at high risk for agricultural activity. However, with access to appropriate technologies, sustainable agricultural and environmental management related to the region's climate rhythm, and high educational investments for the local population, it is possible to coexist with the particularities of the tropical climate in the semi-arid region.



Keywords: Precipitation, Anomaly, Disaster

Author Biographies

Rafael Vinicius de São José, State University of Campinas, Campinas (SP), Brazil

PhD in Geography - UNICAMP (2023). PhD in Teaching and History of Earth Sciences (in progress) - UNICAMP. Master in Teaching and History of Earth Sciences - UNICAMP (2019). Degree in Geography - State University of Feira de Santana (UEFS). He works with Climatology, working mainly on the following topics: Hydrometeorological events, vulnerability, risks and disasters; teaching and dissemination of climatology and semi-arid tropical climate, with emphasis on the occurrence of drought and drought.

Roberto Greco, State University of Campinas, Campinas (SP), Brazil

Associate Professor of Earth Sciences at the Department of Scientific and Technological Policy (DPCT), at the Institute of Geosciences at the State University of Campinas (UNICAMP). Degree in Natural Sciences (1997) and PhD from the doctoral school Science of the Earth System: environment, resources and cultural heritage (2010), from the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia (Unimore), Italy. In 2020 he was invited as a visiting professor at Unimore to offer the first edition of the Teaching and Communication in Geosciences subject. He was also a scholarship holder for the Visiting Professor from Abroad program at Unicamp between May and September 2012. He coordinates the Geosciences and Society research group. Research interests include teaching-learning processes related to Earth Sciences and Environmental Education content. Since 2018 he has been involved in several research and extension projects with socio-environmental themes in collaboration with Cardiff University (United Kingdom). He initiated and coordinated the Brazilian Earth Science Olympiad and the Brazilian Geography Olympiad for high school students. Between 2018 and 2022 he was General Coordinator of the International Geoscience Education Organization (IGEO) and General Coordinator of the International Earth Science Olympiad (IESO). He is a member of the Executive Board of the International Association for Promoting Geoethics (IAPG) and a member of the Commission on Geoscience Education (COGE) of the International Union Geological Sciences (IUGS).

Larissa Vieira Zezzo, State University of Campinas, Campinas (SP), Brazil

PhD student in the Postgraduate Program in Teaching and History of Earth Sciences at the State University of Campinas (UNICAMP). She completed a teaching internship in different subjects of the Geography course at UNICAMP, as well as extension projects with the Campinas community. Recipient of the Eiffel Scholarship for excellence for a year of research at Université Rennes 2 (France). Master in Geosciences and Environment from Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP). Graduated in Environmental Sciences from the Federal University of São Paulo (UNIFESP). I obtained a scholarship through the Science without Borders - Sandwich Graduation program at the University of Córdoba (Spain), carrying out a summer internship at the Consejería de Medio Ambiente y Ordenamiento del Territorio in Parque de Los Villares. Voluntary Scientific Initiation, working in the area of Applied Microbiology at the Multidisciplinary Laboratory in Health and Environment at UNIFESP - Campus Diadema. Undertaking Scientific Initiation in the area of Geosciences and teaching internship in the same area. Member of the Brazilian Geology Society since February 1, 2016.

Priscila Pereira Coltri, State University of Campinas, Campinas (SP), Brazil

PhD from the Faculty of Agricultural Engineering (Feagri), at the State University of Campinas (UNICAMP). The doctorate was carried out at the Center for Meteorological and Climatic Research Applied to Agriculture (CEPAGRI). He completed his doctorate at the University of Rennes 2, France. He was a Post-Doc Fellow abroad (PDE - CNPQ) at "Le Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l'Environnement (LSCE)", France (2013). Permanent Professor of the Postgraduate Program in Teaching and History of Earth Sciences (EHCT), at the Institute of Geosciences (IG/UNICAMP). She is currently a Researcher and Director at the Center for Meteorological and Climate Research Applied to Agriculture (CEPAGRI), UNICAMP. She works mainly in the following lines of research: Agrometeorology and Modeling; Climate changes; Education and Communication in Climatology.

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Published
02/12/2023
How to Cite
SÃO JOSÉ, Rafael Vinicius de et al. DROUGHT RISK IN THE SEMI-ARID OF BAHIA. Mercator, Fortaleza, v. 22, dec. 2023. ISSN 1984-2201. Available at: <http://www.mercator.ufc.br/mercator/article/view/e22024>. Date accessed: 27 apr. 2024. doi: https://doi.org/10.4215/rm2023.e22024.
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Vol 22 (2023)
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