ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING AND ANALYSIS FOR IMPACT SIMULATION OF THE BRAZILIAN FOREST CODE IN THE LANDSCAPE STRUCTURE OF DF
Abstract
In this paper, we analyzed the impacts of changes in environmental legislation and the implementation of the Brazilian Forest Code – BFC, on the landscape structure. In order to achieve this, data from the Rural Environmental Registry – RER and vegetation/soil coverage maps were used, in addition to a series of other environmental variables, for the construction, calibration and validation of an environmental model capable of simulating the impacts of changes in the law in the Landscape structure, from the perspective of three distinct scenarios. Scenario 1 considers the recovery of Areas of Permanent Preservation – APP and percentages of Legal Reserves – LR in accordance with the current BFC, maintaining the excess of native vegetation – ENV, which are outside these areas; Scenario 2 considers the application of the current BFC and suppression of all remaining native vegetation – RNV which are not located in protected areas; Scenario 3 considers the full recovery of the APP and LR bands, regardless of the size of the property and maintenance of the ENV. As main results, it was identified that in the Federal District, in relation to APP, the change in law represents a loss of 5,285 ha that will no longer be recovered. Most of this unrecovered area, 53%, is located in properties with more than 15 fiscal modules – the larger properties. The amnesty in relation to LR represents 2,459 ha, mainly due to the exceptions found in article 67 of the BFC.
Keywords: Rural Environmental Registry, Environmental Regularization Program, Simulation.
References
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YANG, X.; CHEN, R.; ZHENG, X. Q. Simulating land use change by integrating ANN-CA model and landscape pattern indices, Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, v. 7:3, p. 918-932, 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2014.1001797.
TURNER, M. G.; GARDNER, R. H. (Ed). Quantitative methods in landscape ecology. New York: Springer, 1991. 536 p.
BAKER, W. L. A review of models of landscape change. Landscape Ecology, v. 2, p. 111-133, 1989. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00137155.
BERTRAND, G. Le paysage entre la nature et la société. Revué Géographique des Pyrénées et du Sud-Ouest, v. 49, p. 16-26, 1978. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.3406/rgpso.1978.3552.
BRASIL. 2008. Decreto Federal 6.514 de 22 de julho de 2008. Brasília, DF: PR, 2008.
BRASIL. 2012. Lei Federal n° 12.651, de 25 de maio de 2012. DOU, Brasília, DF: PR, 2012.
CLARCKS LAB. The land change modeler for ecological sustainability. Worcester, 2009. Catálogo. Disponível em: http://clarklabs.org/applications/upload/Land-Change-Modeler-IDRISI-Focus-Paper.pdf
CHRISTOFOLETTI, A. Modelagem de sistemas ambientais. 1a ed. São Paulo: Edgar Blucher, 1999. 240 p.
CNUC. Cadastro Nacional de Unidades de Conservação. Disponível em: https://www.icmbio.gov.br/portal/geoprocessamentos/51-menu-servicos/4004-downloads-mapa-tematico-e-dados-geoestatisticos-das-uc-s
COSGROVE, D. Prospect, perspective and the evolution of the landscape idea. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 45-62, 1985. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/622249.
COSGROVE, D. Cultural landscapes. In: A European Geography (pp. 65-81). Routledge, 2017.
EASTMAN, J. R. IDRISI Taiga: guide to GIS and image processing: Clarcks Lab, 2009. 342 p.
FORMAN, R. T. T., GODRON, M. Landscape ecology. New York: Jonh Wile & Sons, 1986. 619 p.
GOODCHILD, M. F. Part 1 Spatial analysts and GIS practitioners: The current status of GIS and spatial analysis. Journal of Geographical Systems, v. 2 p. 5-10, 2000. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s101090050022.
GOUNARIDIS, D.; CHORIANOPOULOS, I.; SYMEONAKIS, E.; KOUKOULAS, S. A Random Forest-Cellular Automata modelling approach to explore future land use/cover change in Attica (Greece), under different socio-economic realities and scales. Sci Total Environ. v. 646, p. 320-335, 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.302.
IBGE. Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Base Cartográfica Continua do Brasil, Escala 1:250.000 - BC250.
IWANAGA, T.; WANG, H. H.; HAMILTON, S. H.; GRIMM, V.; KORALEWSKI, T. E.; SALADO, A.; LITTLE, J. C. Socio-technical scales in socio-environmental modeling: Managing a system-of-systems modeling approach. Environmental Modelling & Software, v. 135, 104885. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104885.
JAKEMAN, A.; HAMILTON, S.; RIZZOLI, A.; CHEN, S. H. Modelling and software as instruments for advancing sustainability. In: Environmental modelling, software and decision support: state of the art and new perspectives. Holanda: Elsevier, 2008. cap. 1, p. 1-12.
JELOKHANI-NIARAKI, M. Collaborative spatial multicriteria evaluation: A review and directions for future research. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 35(1), 9-42, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2020.1776870.
LANG, S.; BLASCHKE, T. Análise da paisagem com SIG. São Paulo: Oficina de Textos, 2009. 424 p.
LIEBETRAU, A. M. Measures of association. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications, 1983. 96 p.
LONGLEY, P. A., & BATTY, M. (EDS.). Spatial analysis: modelling in a GIS environment. John Wiley & Sons, 1997. 400 p.
MATA, R., GALIANA, L., ALLENDE ÁLVAREZ, F., FERNÁNDEZ, S., LACASTA, P., LÓPEZ, N.; SANZ, C. Evaluación del paisaje de la Comunidad de Madrid: de la protección a la gestión territorial. Urban. 14, 34-57, 2009.
MATA, R. Retorno al paisaje mediterráneo. Cultura territorial, conflictos y políticas. Asociación de Geógrafos Españoles; Colegio de Geógrafos de España; Universidad de Alicante, p. 17-68, 2012.
McGARIGAL, K.; MARKS, B. FRAGSTATS: spatial pattern analysis program for quantifying landscape structure. Forest Service General, US. (Technical Report PNW: 351), 1995.
MILLINGTON, J.D.A.; KATERINCHUK, V.; SILVA, R. F. B.; VICTORIA, D. C.; BATISTELLA, M. Modelling drivers of Brazilian agricultural change in a telecoupled world, Environmental Modelling & Software, Volume 139, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105024.
MapBiomas - Coleção 5 da Série Anual de Mapas de Cobertura e Uso de Solo do Brasil, acessado em maio de 2021 através do link: https://mapbiomas.org/colecoes-mapbiomas-1?cama_set_language=pt-BR.
RIBEIRO, M. C. Modelos de simulação aplicados à conservação de paisagens fragmentadas da Mata Atlântica brasileira. 2010. 277 p. Tese (Doutorado em Ecologia) - Universidade de São Paulo (USP), São Paulo, 2010. Disponível em:
SANZ, E.; YACAMÁN, C.; MATA, R. Sistemas agroalimentarios: apropiación del territorio a través de la alimentación. Los ejemplos de Aviñon y de Madrid. Cultura territorial e innovación social.¿ Hacia un nuevo modelo metropolitano en Europa del sur. Valencia: Publicacions de la Universitat de Valencia, 453-476, 2018.
SEGETH - Secretaria de Estado de Desenvolvimento Urbano e Habitação. Disponível em: https://www.geoportal.seduh.df.gov.br/geoportal/
SICAR - Sistema Nacional de Cadastro Ambiental Rural. Dados Disponíveis em: https://www.car.gov.br/#/
SOARES-FILHO, B., RAJÃO, R., MACEDO, M., CARNEIRO, A., COSTA, W., COE, M., RODRIGUES, H., ALENCAR, A. Cracking Brazil's Forest Code. Science. v. 344, p. 363-364, 2014. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1246663.
TANIWAKI, R. H.; FORTE, Y. A.; SILVA, G. O.; BRANCALIONA, P. H. S.; COGUETOC, C. V.; FILOSO, S.; FERRAZA, S. B. The Native Vegetation Protection Law of Brazil and the challenge for first-order stream conservation. Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation. v. 16, p. 49-53, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pecon.2017.08.007.
TIUMENTSEV, Y.; EGORCHEV, M. Neural Network Modeling and Identification of Dynamical Systems. Academic Press, 2019. 332 p.
YACAMÁN, O.; C., FERRER, J. D.; MATA O. R. Green infrastructure planning in metropolitan regions to improve the connectivity of agricultural landscapes and food security. Land, 9(11), 414, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/land9110414.
YANG, X.; CHEN, R.; ZHENG, X. Q. Simulating land use change by integrating ANN-CA model and landscape pattern indices, Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, v. 7:3, p. 918-932, 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2014.1001797.
TURNER, M. G.; GARDNER, R. H. (Ed). Quantitative methods in landscape ecology. New York: Springer, 1991. 536 p.
Published
02/12/2023
How to Cite
LUIZ, Carlos Henrique Pires; STEIKEN, Valdir Adilson.
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING AND ANALYSIS FOR IMPACT SIMULATION OF THE BRAZILIAN FOREST CODE IN THE LANDSCAPE STRUCTURE OF DF.
Mercator, Fortaleza, v. 22, dec. 2023.
ISSN 1984-2201.
Available at: <http://www.mercator.ufc.br/mercator/article/view/e22025a>. Date accessed: 27 apr. 2024.
doi: https://doi.org/10.4215/rm2023.e22025.
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