SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF DROUGHT EVENTS IN UPPER PARANÁ RIVER HYDROGRAPHIC REGION (BRAZIL) FROM 1990 TO 2020

DOI: https://doi.org/10.4215/rm2024.e23001

Abstract

The Paraná River Hydrographic Region is of great socioeconomic relevance for Brazil. Therefore, due to the history of droughts in the region, the aims of the current study were to assess rainfall spatial and temporal variability, as well as to analyze drought features based on using the Normalized Percentage Index (NPI) to contribute to water management processes in Upper Paraná River (UPR). The study area encompasses 14
Planning and Management Units, distributed in Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais and São Paulo states. Climate data were obtained from the National Hydrometeorological Network database. A geostatistical analysis of rainfall was carried out, based on the annual series of 408 stations, and subsequently the calculation of NPI for classifying the droughts severity. All periods analyzed (1990-2020) showed spatial dependence (moderate to high), allowing the elaboration of droughts maps. The dry and rainy periods and areas did not indicate direct influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo units were the main contributors to the identified droughts. The data showed that 2010-2020 was the driest decade of the period, with a greater contribution from the 2019/2020 period, where droughts exceeded 60% of the area for two consecutive years, an event never identified in the last 3 decades. The NPI curves referring to “initial drought” and “mild” allowed verifying years of water crisis when their summed percentages reached at least 50% of the region. The methodology used is versatile, allowing its use in any
watershed.

Keywords: Rains. Water management. NPI. Kriging.

Author Biographies

Eduarda Noriko Tokuda, São Paulo State University Júlio de Mesquita Filho, São Paulo (SP), Brazil

Master in Civil Engineering from Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP/FEIS) in the area of Water Resources and Environmental Technologies (Scholarship funded by the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel - CAPES). He worked as a Teaching Fellow (Disciplines: Building installations: hydraulic, sanitary and gas; and Water supply and sewage collection systems), and teaching internship (Discipline: Hydrology) at UNESP/FEIS. Taught the subjects: Hydrology and Hydraulics in the extension course at the Fernandópolis Educational Foundation (FEF). Specialist in Structures from UNIFEV (2019). He has experience in the area of Civil Engineering, with an emphasis on Hydrology, working mainly on the topics: urban hydrology, climate change, statistical hydrology, experimental statistics, geostatistics and river basin management. She is currently co-owner of BIM Construtora & Incorporadora, leading the preparation and coordination of studies and projects.

César Gustavo da Rocha Lima, São Paulo State University Júlio de Mesquita Filho, São Paulo (SP), Brazil

PhD in Agronomy from the Faculty of Engineering of Ilha Solteira (FEIS/UNESP). He completed a Post-Doctorate in Geography (UFMS) in the Area of Geoenvironmental Analysis (Environmental Dynamics and Planning). He was Environmental Director of the Municipality of Pereira Barreto-SP between 2010-2013 where he developed actions of the Município Verde-Azul Strategic Program (SEMA-SP). Since 2014, he has worked as an Assistant Professor in the Area of Geotechnics at the Department of Civil Engineering of the Faculty of Engineering of Ilha Solteira (FEIS-UNESP) and works in the Postgraduate Program in Civil Engineering (PPGEC - Water Resources and Environmental Technologies) and in the Professional Master's Degree in Water Resources Management and Regulation (ProfÁgua/ANA) where he works with the application of Geotechnologies in Environmental Analysis. It is also part of the UNESP Thematic Water Extension Network. He has experience in Soil Science with an emphasis on Soil Physics / Soil Mechanics, Soil and Water Management / Conservation, Environment, Watersheds, Geoprocessing, Remote Sensing and Geostatistical Analysis.

Jefferson Nascimento de Oliveira, São Paulo State University Júlio de Mesquita Filho, São Paulo (SP), Brazil

PhD in Hydraulic Engineering and Sanitation from the University of São Paulo (2002), having completed a sandwich doctorate at Stanford University (2000). Full professor at UNESP, Ilha Solteira Campus (2019). He was coordinator of the Postgraduate Program in Civil Engineering at Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho, Ilha Solteira campus from 2013 to 2017. He has experience in the area of Sanitary Engineering, with an emphasis on Water Resources, working mainly on the following topics: water underground, water resources management, urban drainage. He was president of the Technical Chamber of Science and Technology-CTCT, of the National Water Resources Council-CNRH, for three consecutive terms. He was a representative of UNESP on the Technical Committee of Public Universities (state and federal) in the State of São Paulo, from February 2015 to 2016. Advisor to the National Water Resources Council - CNRH, representing Educational Institutions, together with Technical Educational Organizations and Research - OTEP, where he represents UNESP, elected for the 2015-2018, 2018-2021, 2019 to 2023 terms and is currently President of the CNRH Ethics Committee. He has coordinated the Technical Chamber of Education, Information, Science and Technology of the CNRH since 2019. Since 2016, he has been the General Coordinator of the Postgraduate Program - Professional Master's Degree in the National Network in Management and Regulation of Water Resources - ProfÁgua, stricto sensu program, noto 4 at CAPES, a program that brings together 14 Public Universities, distributed across the 5 regions of Brazil, having graduated more than 520 masters throughout the national territory. He has held the Presidency of the São José dos Dourados-SP River Basin Committee since January 2023.

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Published
12/01/2024
How to Cite
TOKUDA, Eduarda Noriko; LIMA, César Gustavo da Rocha; OLIVEIRA, Jefferson Nascimento de. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF DROUGHT EVENTS IN UPPER PARANÁ RIVER HYDROGRAPHIC REGION (BRAZIL) FROM 1990 TO 2020. Mercator, Fortaleza, v. 23, jan. 2024. ISSN 1984-2201. Available at: <http://www.mercator.ufc.br/mercator/article/view/e23001>. Date accessed: 27 apr. 2024. doi: https://doi.org/10.4215/rm2024.e23001.
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