EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON SUGARCANE AND CITRUS CROPS IN BRAZIL

Alex da Silva Sousa; Fernado Xavier; Emerson Galvani; Roberto Fray Silva; Gustavo Marques Mostaço; Antonio Mauro Saraiva; Carlos Eduardo Cugnasca; Jurandyr Luciano Sanches Ross

doi:10.4215/rm2024.e23019

Alex da Silva Sousa University of São Paulo, São Paulo (SP), Brazil http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3039-830X
Fernado Xavier University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo (SP), Brazil http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5797-7339
Emerson Galvani University of São Paulo, São Paulo (SP), Brazil http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8082-5963
Roberto Fray Silva University of São Paulo, São Paulo (SP), Brazil http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9792-0553
Gustavo Marques Mostaço University of São Paulo, São Paulo (SP), Brazil http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0984-4421
Antonio Mauro Saraiva University of São Paulo, São Paulo (SP), Brazil http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2283-1123
Carlos Eduardo Cugnasca University of São Paulo, São Paulo (SP), Brazil http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8306-9342
Jurandyr Luciano Sanches Ross University of São Paulo, São Paulo (SP), Brazil http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7726-2960

DOI: https://doi.org/10.4215/rm2024.e23019

Abstract

Agricultural production is directly related to the environmental conditions. Favorable conditions can lead to higher productivity and product quality. However, climate change may pose a threat to agricultural production across the globe, as a rise in temperature may cause a decrease in the extent of suitable areas for growing certain crops. Using spatial analysis and data from future climate change scenarios developed by the IPCC, this research aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on the sugarcane and citrus plantations in the state of Sao Paulo from agroclimatic zoning mapping. The results of this research demonstrate that both crops can suffer great reduction of areas suitable for cultivation if there are severe changes in the climate regime, and these results can be used by managers and researchers to mitigate these potential impacts, as well as to clarify how climate change affects life on the planet, with the possible reduction of food and bioenergy production.

Author Biographies

Alex da Silva Sousa, University of São Paulo, São Paulo (SP), Brazil

Master in Physical Geography (2015), all from the University of São Paulo. Experience in analysis and diagnosis of the Physical Environment and Landscape, through mapping and analysis of geomorphological, pedological, hydrographic, climatological and biogeographic aspects. Work mainly focused on mapping and geosystemic characterization of the Physical Environment, through multicriteria analysis taking into account the variables of the biotic and abiotic environment, aiming at the adequate management of the areas under study. Specialized knowledge of the geochemical factors involved in pedological and geomorphological dynamics. Experience in field surveys for mapping and validation involving aspects of the natural environment (geomorphological, pedological, geological, climatological and biogeographic).

Fernado Xavier, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo (SP), Brazil

PhD in Computer Engineering from the Polytechnic School of the University of São Paulo (Poli-USP). Experience in the area of Computer Science, working as a data scientist in the following areas: planetary health, biodiversity, water resources and social networks.

Emerson Galvani, University of São Paulo, São Paulo (SP), Brazil

PhD in Agronomy (Energy in Agriculture) [Botucatu] from the Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho in 2001. He has published 135 articles in specialized journals and 251 papers in conference proceedings. He has 55 book chapters published and 4 books organized. He currently coordinates 4 research projects. He works in the area of Geography, with an emphasis on Physical Geography, Climatology and Microclimatology. In his professional activities he has interacted with 72 collaborators in co-authorship of scientific papers. In his Lattes CV the most frequent terms in the contextualization of scientific and technological production are: microclimate, energy balance, climatic attributes, microclimate of specific environments. CNPq research and productivity fellow (1D). President of the Brazilian Association of Climatology - ABCLIMA (2008 - 2010). Coordinator of the Postgraduate Program in Physical Geography - University of São Paulo (2007 to 2011). Vice-president of the Postgraduate Committee of FFLCH/USP (2009 to 2011). Editor of the Journal of the Department of Geography of USP from March 2011 to October 2015. Member of the CAPES evaluation committee in the area of Geography (triennium 2011 to 2013). Coordinator of the Geography Course (2015 to 2019). Editor-in-Chief of the Brazilian Journal of Climatology (October 2016 to 2018) and Associate Editor of the GeoUSP Journal (July 2016 to 2018). Vice-president of the Undergraduate Committee of FFLCH (June 2017 to 2017). Advisor of the thesis that won the ANPEGE award. Madalena's father on 12/09/2014. Representative of the Geography area at CNPq

Roberto Fray Silva, University of São Paulo, São Paulo (SP), Brazil

PhD in Electrical Engineering, with an emphasis on Computer Engineering (2021) from the University of São Paulo. He is one of the founders of Mercúrio Digitizações, a company dedicated to the digital preservation of historical and cultural collections. He was a postdoctoral researcher at the Institute of Advanced Studies (IEA-USP) and the Center for Artificial Intelligence (C4AI), within the domain of Multicriteria Causal Decision Making in Food Production Networks (AgriBio) and the Agricultural Automation Laboratory (LAA), both part of the Polytechnic School of the University of São Paulo. He is currently a Professor in the Department of Biosystems Engineering (LEB) of the Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture, in the areas of automation, robotics, and artificial intelligence applied to agricultural and forestry systems. His research interests include the use of automation, artificial intelligence, machine learning, and robotics in agro-industrial supply chain problems, time series forecasting, multi-objective modeling, and prediction of climate extremes in agricultural areas. During his undergraduate studies, he participated in a 1-semester exchange program at Wageningen University and Research Centre (Wageningen, the Netherlands), in the areas of business management, supply chain management, and marketing. He also participated in a research project in the area of tomato supply chain management at the Landbouw-Economisch Institut (The Hague, the Netherlands). During his master's degree, he participated in a 3-month research exchange at the Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto (ISEP), part of the Instituto Politécnico do Porto (IPP), working together with GECAD (Research Group on Knowledge Engineering and Decision Support). During his doctorate, he was a researcher at the Center for Data Science (C2D), of the Escola Politécnica of the University of São Paulo. He also led a PIPE (Innovative Research in Small Businesses) Phase 1 project, called "Technical and commercial viability analysis of a portable low-cost machine to digitize very large historical documents aiming at long-term preservation and knowledge democratization".

Gustavo Marques Mostaço, University of São Paulo, São Paulo (SP), Brazil

Master in Agricultural Systems Engineering from the Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture - ESALQ/USP (2014), in the area of Precision Animal Science and Animal Thermal Comfort, and was a FAPESP master's scholarship holder. He is currently pursuing a PhD at the Polytechnic School of the University of São Paulo, and is a member of the Agricultural Automation Laboratory (LAA). He conducts research in the Internet of Things (IoT) and Intelligent Systems for Agriculture.

Antonio Mauro Saraiva, University of São Paulo, São Paulo (SP), Brazil

PhD (1998) and Associate Professor (1993) in Electrical Engineering, from Poli-USP, in the area of Information Technology in Agribusiness and Environment. Researcher of the Sabbatical Year Program of the Institute of Advanced Studies of USP, IEA. He has been a professor at the Department of Computer Engineering and Digital Systems (Poli-USP) since 1989, and a Full Professor since 2008. Head of the Department from 3/2014 to 3/2016. Deputy Provost of Research at USP from 4/2014 to 3/2016. Advisor to the Provost of Research from 2016 to 2020. President of the Research Committees of Poli-USP (2011-16) and IEA-USP (2018-20). Researcher 1C of CNPq. He worked in the private sector at NEC do Brasil SA (1981-83) and at the Foundation for Technological Development of Engineering - FDTE (1988-89). He created (1989) the Agricultural Automation Laboratory, a pioneering group dedicated to researching Information Technology applied to agribusiness and the environment. He created (2011) the Support Center for Research in Biodiversity and Computing at USP, BioComp and, informatics for biodiversity. He created (2019) the Study Group on Planetary Health at IEA-USP. Member of the Task Force on Knowledge and Data, of IPBES, Intergovernmental science-policy platform on biodiversity and ecosystem services, of the UN/UNEP (2015-19). He was a technical advisor to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAO, and the Ministry of the Environment on biodiversity and pollinator projects. Member of the Technical Advisory Board of the Brazilian Biodiversity Information System, SIBBR, of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation. He was a member of the Executive Board of Biodiversity Informatics Standards (TDWG), representing Latin America. He has been a member of the Municipal Council for Science, Technology & Innovation - CMCT&I, of the City of São Paulo, representing USP, since 2012. He was a visiting scientist at the National Museum of Natural History (Smithsonian Institution) in Washington-DC (Oct-Dec 2009), and a visiting scholar at the University of Florida (Dec/09-Jan 2010). He was one of the founders (1995) of the ISOBUS Brazil Task Force and of the ABNT Study Commission on Communication and Electronics Embedded in Agricultural Machinery. He was chairman of the Information Technology section of the International Commission of Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering (CIGR), of which he is now Honorary President. He is a member of the Brazilian Association of Agroinformatics-SBIAgro; he was its president (2004-2007); a member of the Brazilian Computer Society, SBC, and of the Brazilian Society of Agricultural Engineering, SBEA. He is a member of the editorial board of the journals Agricultural Engineering International (sectional editor), Journal of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Journal of Information Technology in Agriculture (JITAg), Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information Systems, and Revista Brasileira de Agroinformática (RBIAGro). He is a reviewer for several other national and international journals. He has worked in R&D in the application of information and communication technologies to agribusiness and the environment, in agrobiodiversity and in planetary health. He has coordinated or participated in several research projects: Pollinators Thematic Network; OpenModeller; Global Pollinators Project-FAO; Prosensap-Finep; SURPASS. He has dedicated himself to the dissemination of IT in agribusiness and the environment and especially to the training of people, masters, doctors, and dozens of students in scientific initiation. In 2013, he received the Jabuti Award, Natural Sciences category (3rd place) for the book Pollinators of Brazil - contributions and perspectives for biodiversity, Sustainable Use, Conservation and Environmental Services. Awarded as Personality of Agricultural Technology by the Union of Engineers in the state of São Paulo, in 2011. Award from the Ass.Br. of Precision Agriculture for his contribution to the area in Brazil.

Carlos Eduardo Cugnasca, University of São Paulo, São Paulo (SP), Brazil

PhD (1992) and Associate Professor in Electrical Engineering in the area of Information Technology in Agribusiness and the Environment (2002) from the University of São Paulo. He has been a professor in the Department of Computer Engineering and Digital Systems at EPUSP since 1988, holding the position of Associate Professor 3. He teaches undergraduate, graduate and extension courses, and is a doctoral and master's advisor in the Electrical Engineering Program at EPUSP, with a concentration in Computer Engineering (CAPES rating: 6), and in the Logistics Systems Engineering Program at the same school, having advised doctors, masters, scientific initiation scholarship holders and undergraduate and specialization course completion projects. He was vice-coordinator of the Interinstitutional Doctoral Program between USP and the Federal University of Mato Grosso. He was vice-coordinator of the Master's Program in Logistics Systems Engineering at the Polytechnic School of USP. He is a professor of the Specialization Courses: Business Logistics at the Carlos Alberto Vanzolini Foundation, Law and Information Technology (and also vice-coordinator) and MBA USP in Sustainability of the Continuing Education Program at EPUSP. He is an elected member of the Departmental Council and the Congregation of the Polytechnic School of the University of São Paulo. He was elected Vice-Head of the Department of Computer Engineering and Digital Systems for the biennia 2016-2018 and 2018-2020, and President of the Culture and Outreach Committee of the Polytechnic School of USP (2017-2018 and 2018-2020). He was Vice-Coordinator of the Chamber of Courses of the Pro-Rectory of Culture and University Outreach of USP. He is an ad hoc advisor to several research funding institutions, such as: FAPESP, CNPq, EMBRAPA, FINEP, CAPES, SCTDE-SP, FACEPE, and the USP Technological Business Incubator Center. He was Vice-President and Member of the Board of Directors of the Brazilian Association of Agroinformatics (SBIAgro), and was a member of the standardization committee of the Brazilian Association of Technical Standards and a member of the ISOBUS Brazil Task Force. He was editor of the Brazilian Journal of Agroinformatics and is an advisor to several scientific journals, such as Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, Precision Agriculture, Biosystems Engineering, Sensors, IEEE Latin America, AFRICON, Brazilian Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Engineering, Control & Automation and RITEC. He is the co-author of several books and book chapters in Brazil and abroad, co-author of patents, has about 300 published articles and papers, some of which have received awards in Brazil and abroad, and frequently gives lectures related to his research areas. He has experience in research and development in the area of Electrical and Computer Engineering, with an emphasis on the application of Information and Communication Technology in agribusiness and the environment, particularly involving the following topics: precision agriculture, embedded electronics in agricultural machinery, wireless sensor networks, control networks, environmental control, intelligent instrumentation and pervasive computing, Internet of Things and agro-industrial logistics. He has been the coordinator of his institution's research group, the Agricultural Automation Laboratory, since 1989. He has been coordinating and participating in multidisciplinary research projects involving several institutions, such as IPT, ESALQ-USP, CTC/Copersucar, USP's Institute of Biosciences, IAPAR, UFMT, and the National Institute of Science and Technology in Critical Embedded Systems (INCT-SEC). Frequent funding sources include CNPq, FINEP, FAPESP, FAPEMAT, and ITL/SEST/SENAT. He was the coordinator of the Subgroup of Sensor Networks Applied to Agrobiodiversity of the Center for Research Support in Biodiversity and Computing at USP, and is a member of the Steering Committee of the Center for Research Support in Smart Cities at USP. He received a Research Productivity grant and project support from CNPq, FAPESP, etc.

Jurandyr Luciano Sanches Ross, University of São Paulo, São Paulo (SP), Brazil

PhD in Geography (Physical Geography) from the University of São Paulo (1987). Full professor at the University of São Paulo, he was head of the Department of Geography at the School of Philosophy, Literature and Human Sciences at USP. He has experience in the area of Geography, with an emphasis on Geomorphology, working mainly on the following topics: geomorphology, cartography, environmental management, ecological-economic zoning and territorial environmental planning. He was a consultant for the MMA for ZEE projects in the period 1992/2002. He worked as a consultant or provided technical scientific guidance in several Ecological-Economic Zoning projects, Municipal Master Plans and Management Plans for Federal and State Conservation Units.

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