ARCTIC DOCTRINE, CHALLENGES AND PERSPECTIVES OF AMERICAN TERRITORIAL EXPANSIONISM UNDER TRUMP’S SECOND ADMINISTRATION (2025–2029)
Abstract
This article examines the economic, strategic, and geopolitical implications of American territorial expansionism in the Arctic during Donald Trump’s second administration (2025–2029), particularly focusing on discourse advocating for the incorporation of Canada and Greenland into the United States. The text explores the economic relevance of the Arctic as a source of rare minerals, oil, and gas, as well as new maritime routes emerging due to polar ice melting. Drawing on classical geopolitical theories such as the balance of power and control of territorial pivots, the study analyzes the impact of Arctic militarization, the presence of powers like China and Russia, and challenges involving Indigenous populations and local governance. The findings suggest that American initiatives in the Arctic reflect long-term interests combining national security, resource exploitation, and global power projection.
Keywords: Geopolitics; Canada; Greenland; Militarization; Maritime Routes; Natural Resources.
References
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BAEV, P. K. Threat assessments and strategic objectives in Russia’s Arctic policy. The Journal of Slavic Military Studies, v. 32, n. 1, p. 25-40, 2019.
BANKES, N.; KOIVUROVA, T. (eds.). The proposed Nordic Saami convention: National and international dimensions of indigenous property rights. Bloomsbury Publishing, 2013.
BERBRICK, W. et al. Conflict Prevention and Security Cooperation in the Arctic Region: Frameworks of the Future. US Naval War College, 2020.
BERTON, P. The Invasion of Canada: 1812-1813. Anchor Canada, 2011.
BORGERSON, S. The coming Arctic boom: As the ice melts, the region heats up. Foreign Affairs, v. 92, p. 76, 2013.
BUZAN, B.; WÆVER, O.; DE WILDE, J. Security: A New Framework for Analysis. Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998.
CHAPNICK, A. The middle power project: Canada and the founding of the United Nations. UBC Press, 2011.
CHARRON, A. Canada, the Arctic, and NORAD: Status quo or new ball game? International Journal, v. 70, n. 2, p. 215-231, 2015.
CNN. Trump, Greenland, Canada, and Panama: Analysis. 2025. Disponível em: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/08/politics/trump-greenland-canada-panama-analysis/index.html. Acesso em: 13 jan. 2025.
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CONLEY, H. A.; MELINO, M. America's Arctic Moment: Great Power Competition in the Arctic to 2050. Rowman & Littlefield, 2021.
DODDS, K.; NUTTALL, M. The Arctic: What Everyone Needs to Know?. Oxford University Press, 2019.
DUNBAR, M. J. Greenland during and since the Second World War. International Journal, v. 5, n. 2, p. 121-140, 1950.
EMMERSON, C. (ed.). The Future History of the Arctic. New York: PublicAffairs, 2010.
FOGELSON, N. Greenland: Strategic Base on a Northern Defense Line. The Journal of Military History, 1989.
GAD, U. P.; STRANDSBJERG, J. Conclusion: Sustainability, reconfiguring identity, space, and time. In: The Politics of Sustainability in the Arctic. Routledge, p. 242-255, 2018.
GIGUÈRE, M.-A.; COMTOIS, C.; SLACK, B. Constraints on Canadian Arctic maritime connections. Case Studies on Transport Policy, v. 5, n. 2, p. 355-366, 2017.
GRANATSTEIN, J. L.; HILLMER, N. For Better or for Worse: Canada and the United States to the 1990s. [S.l.: s.n.], 1991.
HARMSEN, P. Fury and Ice: Greenland, the United States and Germany in World War II. 2024.
HENRIKSEN, A.; RAHBEK-CLEMMENSEN, J. The Greenland card: Prospects for and barriers to Danish Arctic diplomacy in Washington. Danish Foreign Policy Yearbook, v. 1, p. 75-98, 2017.
KEIL, K.; KNECHT, S. (eds.). Governing Arctic Change: Global Perspectives. Springer, 2016.
KOLÅS, Å. Indigenous rights, sovereignty and resource governance in the Arctic. Strategic Analysis, v. 37, n. 4, p. 499-504, 2013.
LAJEUNESSE, A.; WHITNEY LACKENBAUER, P.; MANICOM, J.; LASSERRE, F. China's Arctic ambitions and what they mean for Canada. University of Calgary Press, 2018.
LANTEIGNE, M. China’s Emerging Role in the Arctic: Economics and Institutions. Reykjavík: Northern Research Forum, 2017. ISBN 978-9935-23-069-0.
LANTEIGNE, M. Chinese Foreign Policy: An Introduction. Routledge, 2019.
LOS ANGELES TIMES. Column: Trump wants to grab control of Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal. He’s already bungled it. 2025. Disponível em: https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2025-01-13/column-trump-wants-to-grab-control-of-greenland-canada-and-the-panama-canal-hes-already-bungled-it. Acesso em: 13 jan. 2025.
MACKINDER, H. J. The Geographical Pivot of History. The Geographical Journal, 1904.
MAHAN, A. T. The Influence of Sea Power Upon History, 1660-1783. Read Books Ltd., 2011.
MARTIN-NIELSEN, J. The other cold war: The United States and Greenland's ice sheet environment, 1948–1966. Journal of Historical Geography, v. 38, n. 1, p. 69-80, 2012.
MOHR, J. China in the Arctic and the Case of Greenland. In: Handbook on Geopolitics and Security in the Arctic: The High North Between Cooperation and Confrontation. p. 113-129, 2020.
NATURAL RESOURCES CANADA. Energy and Natural Resources in Canada. 2025. Disponível em: https://www.nrcan.gc.ca. Acesso em: 13 jan. 2025.
NIELSEN, K. H. Transforming Greenland: Imperial formations in the cold war. New Global Studies, v. 7, n. 2, p. 129-154, 2013.
ØSTHAGEN, A. Coastguards and Ocean Politics in the Arctic. Palgrave Macmillan, 2020.
PARADIS, M.; PARKER, R. D.; JAMES, P. Predicting the North: sovereignty and the Canadian brand in the Arctic. In: Canada, Nation Branding and Domestic Politics. Routledge, p. 63-82, 2020.
PEZARD, S. et al. China’s Strategy and Activities in the Arctic. Rand Corporation, 2022.
QUILLÉROU, E. et al. The Arctic: Opportunities, Concerns and Challenges. Scientific Fact Sheets of the Ocean & Climate Platform, p. 73-87, 2020.
RAHBEK-CLEMMENSEN, J. When Do Ideas of an Arctic Treaty Become Prominent in Arctic Governance Debates? Arctic, v. 72, n. 2, p. 116-130, 2019.
RAHBEK-CLEMMENSEN, J.; THOMASEN, G. How has Arctic coastal state cooperation affected the Arctic Council? Marine Policy, v. 122, p. 104239, 2020.
RICHARDS JR, T. W. The Texas Moment: Breakaway Republics and Contested Sovereignty in North America, 1836-1846. Temple University, 2016.
ROUCEK, J. S. The geopolitics of Greenland. Journal of Geography, v. 50, n. 6, p. 239-246, 1951.
SALE, R.; POTAPOV, E. The Scramble for the Arctic: Ownership, Exploitation and Conflict in the Far North. Frances Lincoln, 2010.
SØRENSEN, C. T. N. The evolving role of the EU in intensifying great power politics in the Arctic–potential implications for EU-China relations. In: China-EU Relations in a New Era of Global Transformation. Routledge, p. 152-169, 2021.
STANLEY, G. F. G. The American Invasion of Canada 1775–1776: A Strategic Overview. In: Swords and Covenants, p. 19-41, 2021.
STATISTICS CANADA. Population and dwelling counts: Canada, provinces and territories, and census subdivisions (municipalities). 2025. Disponível em: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810000202. Acesso em: 13 jan. 2025.
STATISTICS GREENLAND. Greenland in Figures. 2025. Disponível em: https://stat.gl. Acesso em: 13 jan. 2025.
STEPHANSON, A. Manifest Destiny: American Expansion and the Empire of Right. Hill and Wang, 1996.
STEPHENSON, S. R.; SMITH, L. C. Influence of climate model variability on projected Arctic shipping futures. Earth's Future, v. 3, n. 11, p. 331-343, 2015.
TAYLOR, A. The Civil War of 1812: American Citizens, British Subjects, Irish Rebels, & Indian Allies. Knopf, 2010.
TILLMAN, H.; YANG, J.; NIELSSON, E. T. The polar silk road: China’s new frontier of international cooperation. China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, v. 4, n. 3, p. 345-362, 2018.
US CENSUS BUREAU. Data Profiles. 2025. Disponível em: https://www.census.gov/data.html. Acesso em: 13 jan. 2025.
WALTZ, K. N. Theory of International Politics. McGraw-Hill, 1979.
WEBER, J. Limited cooperation or upcoming alliance? Russia, China and the Arctic. In: Handbook on Geopolitics and Security in the Arctic: The High North Between Cooperation and Confrontation. p. 345-361, 2020.
WEEKS, W. E. Building the Continental Empire: American Expansion from the Revolution to the Civil War. Ivan R. Dee, 1997.
WEIGERT, H. W. Iceland, Greenland and the United States. Foreign Affairs, v. 23, n. 1, p. 112-122, 1944.
WELCH, D. A. The Arctic and Geopolitics. Springer International Publishing, 2020.
WOOD, G. S. The American Revolution: A History. Modern Library, 2005.
WORLD BANK. World Development Indicators: GDP Data. 2025. Disponível em: https://data.worldbank.org. Acesso em: 13 jan. 2025.
YOUNG, O. R. Arctic Politics: Conflict and Cooperation in the Circumpolar North. Dartmouth College Press, 2000.
ZANDEE, D.; KRUIJVER, K.; STOETMAN, A. The Future of Arctic Security. Clingendael Report, 2020-04.
Published
21/06/2025
How to Cite
UGEDA, Luiz; SANCHES, Karine.
ARCTIC DOCTRINE, CHALLENGES AND PERSPECTIVES OF AMERICAN TERRITORIAL EXPANSIONISM UNDER TRUMP’S SECOND ADMINISTRATION (2025–2029).
Mercator, Fortaleza, v. 24, june 2025.
ISSN 1984-2201.
Available at: <http://www.mercator.ufc.br/mercator/article/view/e24013>. Date accessed: 17 aug. 2025.
doi: https://doi.org/10.4215/rm2025.e24013.
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